Climate Impact of Scrapping Petrol Cars for EVs

Recent research reveals that scrapping a new petrol car in favour of an electric vehicle (EV) yields a lower overall climate impact, despite EVs producing higher emissions during their manufacturing phase. The study, conducted by Elliott Campbell at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara using US data, demonstrates that whole-life emissions for EVs are almost 90 per cent lower than those of combustion engine vehicles, with driving emissions savings significantly outweighing upfront manufacturing costs. The authors emphasize that keeping a fossil fuel car on the road until the end of its life offers zero environmental benefit, challenging the popular belief that retaining a functional petrol car is greener. Their findings hold true across almost all scenarios, with exceptions only occurring when electricity grids are heavily reliant on coal power or when a fossil fuel car is driven less than approximately 7,000 kilometres per year. While experts like Kenneth Gillingham from Yale University praise the study's clever angle, others like Gregory Keoleian from the University of Michigan note that retiring a brand new combustion vehicle is an extreme case. Such cars typically enter the second-hand market, potentially lowering used car prices and encouraging shifts from public transport to car use, which requires further economic and behavioural modelling. The study provides robust support for subsidised scrappage schemes to accelerate the electric vehicle transition in the United States, where transportation emissions represent the single largest source of carbon emissions. Consumers can transition to electric vehicles with confidence, knowing there are no environmental deterrents to abandoning fossil fuel vehicles early.