Could Advanced Aliens Be Living Nearby? Scientists Say It Is Unlikely

Advanced extraterrestrial civilizations are unlikely to inhabit Earth's galactic neighborhood, according to a September 30, 2026 study published in the International Journal of Astrobiology by researchers at Northern Arizona University, led by Professor Chris Doughty. The research proposes that the evolution of complex life on exoplanets depends heavily on cumulative photosynthetic energy over billions of years, rather than the sheer passage of time, explaining why nearby older planets may still host only simple microbial life. By analyzing climate simulations for 29 nearby habitable exoplanets, the team found that most worlds, such as TRAPPIST-1e which has only 21 percent of Earth's lifetime carbon fixation, suffer from limited light, temperature, or precipitation that severely restricts plant growth. Only two planets, GJ 1061c and K2-3d, were identified as potentially having life progressed beyond Earth's evolutionary stage, suggesting that Fermi's paradox is resolved because most neighboring Earth-like planets remain stuck at the microbial stage.